The Affordable Care Act, enacted in March 2010, made significant changes in federal programs and tax policies regarding health care (and in other areas)—including changes affecting insurance coverage, affordability and accessibility of insurance, the financing of medical care, and the operation of the Medicare program. CBO analyzes the effects of the act under current law and the effects of proposals to change the law.
CBO published updated baseline projections of health insurance coverage and federal subsidies for it. The projections are described in an article published in the journal "Health Affairs" and a presentation on CBO’s website.
In 2023, federal subsidies for health insurance are estimated to be $1.8 trillion, or 7.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). In CBO and JCT’s projections, those net subsidies reach $3.3 trillion, or 8.3 percent of GDP, in 2033.
CBO released updated projections of health insurance coverage for people under age 65 in the journal Health Affairs.
In CBO and JCT’s projections, net federal subsidies in 2022 for insured people under age 65 are $997 billion. In 2032, that annual amount is projected to reach $1.6 trillion.
CBO describes the key design considerations for a federally administered nongroup health insurance plan—often referred to as a public option—and some of their major implications.
CBO presents its projections of what federal deficits, debt, spending, and revenues would be for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change.
Under the ACA, most legal residents must get health insurance or pay a penalty. CBO and JCT estimate that 30 million will be uninsured in 2016, but most will be exempt from the penalty; 4 million will make payments totaling $4 billion.
